Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad have faced each other 5 times recently.

1X2: Away Win

BTTS: BTTS No

Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5

Highest model probability: 2 (38%)

Predicted formations: Atletico Madrid 4-4-2 / Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1

H2H summary: Atletico Madrid wins 3, draws 2, Real Sociedad wins 0

Atletico Madrid enter this tie with a season profile built on - points from - matches, placing them - in their league. Their record of - wins, - draws, and - defeats with goals at -:- reflects poor form . Much of their attacking weight falls on A. Griezmann (5 goals), A. Lookman (2 goals), D. Hancko (1 goals), with creative support from A. Lookman (2 assists), N. Molina (2 assists), J. Alvarez (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which supports an unclear split record. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around a balanced approach.

Ahead of this knockout test, Real Sociedad arrive from a league campaign that has them - with - points after - matches. The return of - wins, - draws, and - defeats, together with a -:- goal balance, points toward poor form . Their attacking influence is driven by U. Sadiq (4 goals), B. Turrientes (3 goals), M. Goti Lopez (2 goals), with creative support from G. Guedes (3 assists), L. Sucic (2 assists), U. Sadiq (1 assists), and at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. Stylistically they continue to show a balanced approach.

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Madrid expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Real Sociedad in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Real Sociedad having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Real Sociedad.