AZ Alkmaar and Shakhtar Donetsk have faced each other 2 times recently.

1X2: Away Win

BTTS: BTTS No

Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5

Highest model probability: 2 (38%)

Predicted formations: AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1 / Shakhtar Donetsk 4-1-4-1

H2H summary: AZ Alkmaar wins 0, draws 1, Shakhtar Donetsk wins 1

Ahead of this knockout test, AZ Alkmaar arrive from a league campaign that has them 14 with 10 points after 6 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats with goals at 7:7 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on T. Parrott (10 goals), S. Mijnans (7 goals), I. Sadiq (4 goals), with creative support from K. Smit (6 assists), M. de Wit (5 assists), T. Parrott (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Shakhtar Donetsk enter this tie with a season profile built on 13 points from 6 matches, placing them 6 in their league. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses plus a goal ratio of 10:5, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Kaua Elias (3 goals), Alisson (2 goals), Isaque Silva (2 goals), with creative support from Marlon Gomes (3 assists), Kaua Elias (2 assists), Pedrinho (2 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between Shakhtar Donetsk's more proactive style and AZ Alkmaar's more cautious structure, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Shakhtar Donetsk have the edge after taking the first leg 3-0, leaving AZ Alkmaar needing to respond to a 3-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Shakhtar Donetsk controlled more possession in the first leg (51% against 49%). Shakhtar Donetsk carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 6 shots on goal compared to 3. Shakhtar Donetsk circulated the ball more often, making 455 passes to 429 and completing 405. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 13 points while AZ Alkmaar sit 14 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AZ Alkmaar expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Shakhtar Donetsk in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shakhtar Donetsk having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Shakhtar Donetsk. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.