Atletico Madrid
WORLD UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
NS
--.--.---- --:--
Metropolitano Stadium
Referee: D. Makkelie
Arsenal
Main Prediction

No Draw

Confidence 85.6%
1X2
1X2 85.6%
No Draw
Odds 1.33
0 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS 65.7%
BTTS No
Odds 1.95
0 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5 70.7%
Under 2.5
Odds 1.71
0 agree / 0 disagree
Cards O/U 86.1%
Over 0 Cards
Odds -
0 agree / 0 disagree
Corners O/U 92%
Over 7.5 Corners
Odds 1.24
0 agree / 0 disagree
HT / FT Model
2-2
Odds 4.00
0 agree / 0 disagree
Correct Score Model
2-0
Odds 15.00
0 agree / 0 disagree

Probability Model

Home 34%
X 14.4%
Away 51.6%
1X 48.4%
X2 66%
12 85.6%

Tactical Setup

Atletico Madrid formation 4-4-2
Arsenal formation 4-3-3
Atletico Madrid missing 3
Arsenal missing 3

Key Squad Notes

Atletico Madrid scorers J. Alvarez (9 goals), A. Sorloth (6 goals), M. Llorente (5 goals)
Atletico Madrid creators A. Griezmann (5 assists), J. Alvarez (4 assists), Matteo Ruggeri (3 assists)
Atletico Madrid key absences P. Barrios, J. M. Gimenez
Arsenal scorers G. Martinelli (6 goals), V. Gyokeres (4 goals), K. Havertz (3 goals)
Arsenal creators L. Trossard (4 assists), G. Martinelli (2 assists), V. Gyokeres (2 assists)
Arsenal key absences E. Eze, M. Merino, J. Timber

Head-to-Head Snapshot

Atletico Madrid and Arsenal have faced each other 4 times recently.

Quick Insight

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Madrid 4-4-2 / Arsenal 4-3-3
Missing players: Atletico Madrid 3, Arsenal 3
H2H summary: Atletico Madrid wins 1, draws 2, Arsenal wins 1

Match Analysis

Atletico Madrid come into this tie placed 14 in their league with 13 points from 8 matches. The return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 17:15 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by J. Alvarez (9 goals), A. Sorloth (6 goals), M. Llorente (5 goals), with creative support from A. Griezmann (5 assists), J. Alvarez (4 assists), Matteo Ruggeri (3 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with P. Barrios, J. M. Gimenez unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Arsenal come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 24 points from 8 matches. With 8 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses plus a goal ratio of 23:4, they bring very strong form and are on a winning streak into this tie. Going forward they rely on G. Martinelli (6 goals), V. Gyokeres (4 goals), K. Havertz (3 goals), with creative support from L. Trossard (4 assists), G. Martinelli (2 assists), V. Gyokeres (2 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with E. Eze, M. Merino, J. Timber unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Arsenal seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Arsenal have the edge after taking the first leg 4-0, leaving Atletico Madrid needing to respond to a 4-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Arsenal controlled more possession in the first leg (52% against 48%). Arsenal carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 8 shots on goal compared to 1. Arsenal circulated the ball more often, making 421 passes to 394 and completing 378. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Madrid expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Arsenal in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Arsenal having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Arsenal carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 24 points while Atletico Madrid sit 14 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Arsenal look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Arsenal.
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.37
Draw 3.33
Home 3.22
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.22
Draw 2.16
Home 3.76
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.25 1.24
Over 1.5 1.38
Over 1.75 1.48
Over 2.0 1.63
Over 2.25 1.93
Over 2.5 2.21
Over 2.75 2.58
Over 3.0 3.26
Over 3.25 3.66
Under 1.25 4.19
Under 1.5 3.14
Under 1.75 2.76
Under 2.0 2.35
Under 2.25 1.95
Under 2.5 1.71
Under 2.75 1.53
Under 3.0 1.36
Under 3.25 1.30
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 3.25
Home 3.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.05
Home 3.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.30
Home 3.10
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 2.5 2.10
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.20
Under 2.5 1.73
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.42
Draw 3.32
Home 3.32
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.06
Draw 2.02
Home 3.95
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.70
Draw 2.38
Home 3.52
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.05
Over 1.25 1.20
Over 1.5 1.34
Over 1.75 1.45
Over 2.0 1.59
Over 2.25 1.96
Over 2.5 2.25
Over 2.75 2.48
Over 3.0 3.10
Over 3.25 3.46
Over 3.5 3.84
Over 3.75 4.86
Over 4.0 7.00
Over 4.25 7.38
Over 4.5 7.80
Over 4.75 7.50
Over 5.0 13.50
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 8.20
Under 0.75 7.55
Under 1.0 6.75
Under 1.25 3.96
Under 1.5 2.94
Under 1.75 2.61
Under 2.0 2.25
Under 2.25 1.98
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 2.75 1.49
Under 3.0 1.33
Under 3.25 1.25
Under 3.5 1.21
Under 3.75 1.12
Under 4.0 1.05
Under 4.25 1.03
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 4.75 1.04
Under 5.0 1.02
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.38
Draw 3.20
Home 3.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.05
Draw 2.05
Home 3.70
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.38
Home 3.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.38
Over 1.75 1.49
Over 2.0 1.65
Over 2.25 1.94
Over 2.5 2.23
Over 2.75 2.63
Over 3.0 3.35
Over 3.25 3.70
Over 3.5 4.20
Over 4.5 9.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.05
Under 1.75 2.63
Under 2.0 2.23
Under 2.25 1.86
Under 2.5 1.65
Under 2.75 1.49
Under 3.0 1.32
Under 3.25 1.27
Under 3.5 1.23
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.30
Draw 3.10
Home 3.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 2.10
Home 3.30
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.25
Home 3.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.10
Over 3.5 3.80
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 19.00
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 1.5 3.00
Under 2.5 1.67
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Last matches: Atletico Madrid
25.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Athletic Club
3
2
W
22.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Elche
2
3
L
18.04.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
2
2
D
14.04.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
1
2
L
11.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
1
2
L
08.04.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
2
0
W
04.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
1
2
L
22.03.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
2
3
L
18.03.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Tottenham
2
3
L
14.03.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Getafe
1
0
W
10.03.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Tottenham
5
2
W
07.03.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
3
2
W
03.03.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
0
3
L
28.02.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Oviedo
1
0
W
24.02.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Club Brugge KV
4
1
W
21.02.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Espanyol
4
2
W
18.02.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Club Brugge KV
3
3
D
15.02.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
0
3
L
12.02.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
4
0
W
08.02.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Real Betis
0
1
L
Last matches: Arsenal
25.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Newcastle
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Manchester City
1
2
L
15.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Sporting CP
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Bournemouth
1
2
L
07.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Sporting CP
1
0
W
04.04.26
FA
Arsenal
Southampton
1
2
L
17.03.26
UEF
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Everton
2
0
W
11.03.26
UEF
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
1
1
D
07.03.26
FA
Arsenal
Mansfield Town
2
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Brighton
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Chelsea
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Tottenham
4
1
W
18.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Wolves
2
2
D
15.02.26
FA
Arsenal
Wigan
4
0
W
12.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Brentford
1
1
D
07.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Sunderland
3
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Arsenal
Leeds
4
0
W
28.01.26
UEF
Arsenal
Kairat Almaty
3
2
W
25.01.26
Pre
Arsenal
Manchester United
2
3
L
H2H: Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal
21.10.25
H2H
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
4
0
L
26.07.18
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
1
1
D
03.05.18
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
1
0
W
26.04.18
H2H
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
1
D
Last matches: Atletico Madrid
25.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Athletic Club
3
2
W
18.04.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
2
2
D
14.04.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
1
2
L
04.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
1
2
L
14.03.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Getafe
1
0
W
10.03.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Tottenham
5
2
W
07.03.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
3
2
W
24.02.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Club Brugge KV
4
1
W
21.02.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Espanyol
4
2
W
12.02.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
4
0
W
08.02.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Real Betis
0
1
L
28.01.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Bodo/Glimt
1
2
L
25.01.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Mallorca
3
0
W
18.01.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
1
0
W
13.12.25
La
Atletico Madrid
Valencia
2
1
W
29.11.25
La
Atletico Madrid
Oviedo
2
0
W
26.11.25
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Inter
2
1
W
08.11.25
La
Atletico Madrid
Levante
3
1
W
04.11.25
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Union St. Gilloise
3
1
W
01.11.25
La
Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
3
0
W
H2H at home: Atletico Madrid
26.07.18
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
1
1
D
03.05.18
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
1
0
W
Last matches: Arsenal
19.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Manchester City
1
2
L
07.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Sporting CP
1
0
W
04.04.26
FA
Arsenal
Southampton
1
2
L
11.03.26
UEF
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
1
1
D
07.03.26
FA
Arsenal
Mansfield Town
2
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Brighton
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Tottenham
4
1
W
18.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Wolves
2
2
D
12.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Brentford
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pre
Arsenal
Leeds
4
0
W
20.01.26
UEF
Arsenal
Inter
3
1
W
17.01.26
Pre
Arsenal
Nottingham Forest
0
0
D
11.01.26
FA
Arsenal
Portsmouth
4
1
W
03.01.26
Pre
Arsenal
Bournemouth
3
2
W
20.12.25
Pre
Arsenal
Everton
1
0
W
10.12.25
UEF
Arsenal
Club Brugge KV
3
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
Arsenal
Aston Villa
1
2
L
30.11.25
Pre
Arsenal
Chelsea
1
1
D
08.11.25
Pre
Arsenal
Sunderland
2
2
D
04.11.25
UEF
Arsenal
Slavia Praha
3
0
W
H2H away: Arsenal
26.07.18
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
1
1
D
03.05.18
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
1
0
L

Missing Players

Atletico Madrid 3 missing
-
P. Barrios
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
J. M. Gimenez
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
N. Gonzalez
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
Arsenal 3 missing
-
M. Merino
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
J. Timber
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
K. Havertz
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Arsenal Away
8 8 0 0 23:4 19 24
W W W W W
2
Bayern München
8 7 0 1 22:8 14 21
W W W L W
3
Liverpool
8 6 0 2 20:8 12 18
W W W L W
4
Tottenham
8 5 2 1 17:7 10 17
W W W L W
5
Barcelona
8 5 1 2 22:14 8 16
W W W L D
6
Chelsea
8 5 1 2 17:10 7 16
W W L W D
7
Sporting CP
8 5 1 2 17:11 6 16
W W L W D
8
Manchester City
8 5 1 2 15:9 6 16
W L W L W
9
Real Madrid
8 5 0 3 21:12 9 15
L W L W L
10
Inter
8 5 0 3 15:7 8 15
W L L L W
11
Paris Saint Germain
8 4 2 2 21:11 10 14
D L D W L
12
Newcastle
8 4 2 2 17:7 10 14
D W D L W
13
Juventus
8 3 4 1 14:10 4 13
D W W W D
14
Atletico Madrid Home
8 4 1 3 17:15 2 13
L D W W W
15
Atalanta
8 4 1 3 10:10 0 13
L L W W W
16
Bayer Leverkusen
8 3 3 2 13:14 -1 12
W L D W W
17
Borussia Dortmund
8 3 2 3 19:17 2 11
L L D W L
18
Olympiakos Piraeus
8 3 2 3 10:14 -4 11
W W W L D
19
Club Brugge KV
8 3 1 4 15:17 -2 10
W W L L D
20
Galatasaray
8 3 1 4 9:11 -2 10
L D L L W
21
Monaco
8 2 4 2 8:14 -6 10
D L W D W
22
Qarabag
8 3 1 4 13:21 -8 10
L W L L D
23
Bodo/Glimt
8 2 3 3 14:15 -1 9
W W D L L
24
Benfica
8 3 0 5 10:12 -2 9
W L W W L
25
Marseille
8 3 0 5 11:14 -3 9
L L W W L
26
Pafos
8 2 3 3 8:11 -3 9
W L L D W
27
Union St. Gilloise
8 3 0 5 8:17 -9 9
W L L W L
28
PSV Eindhoven
8 2 2 4 16:16 0 8
L L L W D
29
Athletic Club
8 2 2 4 9:14 -5 8
L W D D L
30
Napoli
8 2 2 4 9:15 -6 8
L D L W D
31
FC Copenhagen
8 2 2 4 12:21 -9 8
L D W W L
32
Ajax
8 2 0 6 8:21 -13 6
L W W L L
33
Eintracht Frankfurt
8 1 1 6 10:21 -11 4
L L L L D
34
Slavia Praha
8 0 3 5 5:19 -14 3
L L L D L
35
Villarreal
8 0 1 7 5:18 -13 1
L L L L L
36
Kairat Almaty
8 0 1 7 7:22 -15 1
L L L L L